Background
Despite the diversity of climatic zones and agricultural systems in Uganda, most farmers are highly dependent on rainfall for production and livelihood. Interannual climate variability in East Africa is strongly influenced by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Rural producers can, therefore, benefit from ENSO-based seasonal rainfall forecasts. In Uganda, forecasts are produced by the National Meterorological Service (NMS) at the onset of each rainy season, incorporated into farmer advisories by the Ministry of Agriculture, and disseminated by the media. In many cases, however, the information does not reach rural areas and, when it does, may not be adequately interpreted by farmers.

This project generated feedback from direct users on ways to improve the content and dissemination of forecasts so that they better respond to farmers' priorities and capacities. It also shows how existing networks of farmers' groups can be mobilized to serve as channels for the communication of climate forecasts. Insights from this research will generate tools that can help harness this potential for collective action and adaptive management in response to forecasts.

Project Description
This study focuses on the role of culture and language in framing the presentation and processing of uncertain information (seasonal rainfall forecasts) in a group setting. The research design centers on the experimental dissemination of seasonal rainfall forecasts to farmers' groups in Rakai District, a drought prone area in southern Uganda. Seasonal rainfall forecasts were downscaled to district level by NMS collaborators, translated into a simple format and local language by Ugandan linguists, and then presented to farmers groups at the onset of the Sept-Dec 2005 and the March-May 2006 rainy seasons. Participants were then asked to discuss the forecasts among themselves (without facilitation by the researchers) and to agree on 3 suggestions to help the NMS better serve farmers' needs. A total of 15 meetings were held and were video- and audio-recorded.

A sociolinguistic analysis of the transcripts shows how the new information is often framed in terms of local knowledge and experience (e.g. of traditional forecast indicators) and cultural models (e.g. of climate change). Social interactions during meetings are shown to be structured by cultural norms (e.g. being polite) and social goals (e.g. reaching consensus). The analysis throws light on the participation dynamics and authority clashes set in motion by the uncertainty of climate forecasts. Participants appeal to tradition, religion, science, government, and development programs to back their ideas and agendas. Interviews with participants were conducted at the end of each rainy season to investigate whether and how the consensual understanding of the forecasts generated during the meetings influenced group and individual decisions and what was the outcome of those decisions. Farmers who did not participate in the meetings were also interviewed for comparative data.

Research Questions
How do group dynamics shape the framing of uncertain climate information?

How do people integrate new decision support aids with those already established in their cultures?

How is climate information integrated into broader planning for risk management?

Publications
Benjamin S. Orlove and Merit Kabugo. Signs and sight in southern Uganda: Representing perception in ordinary conversation. Etnofoor (2005) 18(1):124-141.

Related Material
»Society for Judgement and Decisionmaking Conference Presentation, November 2007:The Influence of Group Discussion on Information Use: Farmers' Groups, Climate Forecast Dissemination and Agricultural Planning in Uganda