Goal
This project studies how farmers in the northeastern US utilize personal experience, group experience, and instructional materials to formulate climate expectations and to protect against climate risk. Some extreme weather events occur every year, and some seasonal anomalies have occurred and will recur; these vivid experiences may be combined with longer-run statistics to determine climate expectations and risk-reduction strategies. We focus on the northeast US partly to simplify (interannual climate variability cannot be forecast for this region) and partly to take advantage of these farmers' access to varied information sources and their flexibility to deploy multiple strategies for risk reduction. CRED's goal is to develop interventions that can facilitate "improved" mental models of the climate distribution by correcting for cognitive and affective (emotional) biases. We examine the relationships between extreme climate events and farmer's decision processes in response to these events, with implications for adaptive responses to climate change. Interventions developed will use these insights to improve adaptive responses to climate change in the agricultural community.

Background
Laboratory studies show that people's appreciation of variability and of trends depends strongly on concrete experience and on recent sequences of events. Observational studies suggest that in the U.S., mean temperatures have increased and that amount and frequency of precipitation have changed in several regions. These changes are manifest as an accumulation of individual events and events are what people experience. These experiences and which influence our mental models of climate distribution. In the Northeastern United States, precipitation has shown strong positive trends. The heaviest rainfall events, in spring and summer, were responsible for the large part of the annual increase in the precipitation in the Northeast.

Research Questions
What influence does time frame have on adaptive responses to extreme climate events in the study population?

What are the linkages between planning horizons, perceptions of climate change impacts and reactive or proactive management options?

Last Updated: June 1, 2006