Goal
This study's goal is to understand the processes involved in the production, dissemination and interpretation of probabilistic hurricane predictions, particularly the 'cone of probability' (COP). The COP image has been widely disseminated to the public by the media, in part because it is a graphic and well suited to the medium of television; however, the cone does not provide any direct information about impact risk. Even when people understand that the cone depicts uncertainty, they may still be confused about what specific event is being depicted. Very few members of the general public are likely to study this image at length to absorb all the different messages being presented.

This study will produce a better interpretation of what to include or exclude in a 'Cone of Probability' graphic. The graphic should attract attention and convey a single key point, in a simple, uncluttered style. Social science methods and approaches should be integrated into the design, development and evaluation of hurricane risk communications, so vital for the well-being of the public.

Background
The 'cone of probability' represents the average error between the forecast track and actual track of hurricanes for the past 10 years for every 12 hour forecast by the media. This visual display has become a familiar figure to most Floridians and is now firmly embedded in popular culture. The 2004 hurricane season demonstrated that hurricane warning imagery, despite admirable attempts by the forecast community to make user-friendly products, is still subject to serious misinterpretation by much of the public. The study used interviews with officials in government and media, archival research of Florida newspapers, analysis of public comments on the COP graphic, and risk communication literature.

Research Questions
What characteristics of the 'cone of uncertainty' graphic contribute to multiple interpretations by the public?

How might alternative approaches remove biases, misinterpretations from existing and new products?

How does the media interpretation of the COP differ from that of government agencies?

Last Updated: June 1, 2006