Goal
The project is in collaboration with the Asociacion Argentina de Consorcios Regionales de Experimentacion Agricola (AACREA) and focuses on individual and group agricultural decision-making in the Pampas region of Argentina, where El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a marked influence on the regions climate. CREDs focus is to study how individual differences in preferences and expectation (shaped by information processing styles, personal experiences, and needs) influence decision framing and objective functions (including instrumental as well as cognitive and affective objectives), and how those interact and integrate in very small groups.

A central component in this work is the provision of seasonal climate forecasts, and the testing of different formats to deliver and explain such information. The goal is to understand and model decision-making in agricultural production systems in the Argentine Pampas in the face of climate variability and other risk factors, and in response to improved climate information and forecasts. We also examine the use of educational tutorials and envisioning tools to facilitate the understanding of abstract climate forecasts.

Elke Weber and Guillermo Podesta gave a two-day workshop on these topics in Buenos Aires. You can download their presentation materials here.

Background
This project seeks to enhance understanding of human behavior and decisions, particularly with respect to the problems of choice and uncertainty, in the context of agricultural production. The area of study is Pergamino located in the Rolling Pampas of central-eastern Argentina, one of the most productive agricultural areas in the world that is highly dependent on rain rather than irrigation. The Pampas show a strong ENSO signal, particularly in the southern spring-summer, coinciding with the growing season of the most valuable crops. ENSO-related climate variability influences yields of important crops like maize. Effective use of climate information may foster enhanced management and higher gross margins, thus providing incentives to improve crop diversity, and reducing the overall vulnerability of agriculture in the Pampas.

Research Questions
How does respondent heterogeneity effect individual and group decisions?

What formats of seasonal climate forecasts are most effective with farmers?

How can we improve climate information and forecasting using information from farming communities?

Satorre, E.H., Bert, F., F. Ruiz Toranzo and G.P. Podest. Climatic information and decision-making in maize production systems of the Argentinean Pampas. Agricultural Systems (in press).

Last Updated: June 1, 2006